中国外汇储备适度规模分析

截至2007年6月中国外汇储备已达13326亿美元。如此巨额的外汇储备引起了政府与学者的广泛关注。合理的外汇储备结构与中国的经济发展的水平应当保持一致,适应世界经济、金融形势变化。在国际金融市场风云突变的今天,持有的外汇越多,承担的汇率风险也就越大。稍有不慎,持有巨额的外汇储备就会面临风险,不仅不会带来收益,还可能遭受损失。因此,中国的外汇储备管理问题重要性日益凸现。     

Inflation Adjustment and Labour Market Structures: Evidence from a Multi‐country Study*

The impact of labour market structures on the response of inflation to macroeconomic shocks is analysed empirically. Results based on a 20‐country panel show that if labour market coordination is high, the effect on inflation of movements in unemployment, import prices, tax rates and productivity is dampened, both on impact and dynamically. In contrast, monopoly power in labour supply, measured by the percentage unionisation of the workforce, appears to amplify the response of inflation to its reduced‐form determinants. These findings are attributed to the behaviour of wages following movements in demand‐ and supply‐side conditions.     

Trade liberalization and institutional reforms1

The accession of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries to the European Union (EU) is expected to lead to the new member countries becoming more like the older members, including in terms of trade. In this paper, we focus on two factors promoting CEE–EU trade integration: trade liberalization and institutional reforms. Measures of trade liberalization undertaken by both parties during the 1990s were very substantial, but did not always produce the expected upsurge of regional trade flows. Much less progress has been made in improving the functioning of CEE institutions (e.g., progress in the privatization process or in reducing corruption). Countries where most important changes at the institutional level occurred were also those that most increased their trade with the EU. Comparing the impact of these two factors, we find that improving institutions in CEE countries can generate as much trade as the removal of all tariff and non‐tariff barriers. The paper also addresses the issue of the presence of reversed causality between trade and institutions, and the pro‐trade effect of institutional similarity.     

Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan

This paper explores theoretically and empirically the medium- and long-run relation of the terms of trade (ratio of traded goods prices) and economic growth of a pair of countries—one of which experiences a major catch-up process towards the other. Two theoretical interdependencies between the terms of trade and economic growth are offered: the home-market effect and the productivity-shock effect. These two effects are tested against each other in a cointegration analysis on data for Japan and the US from 1971 until 1997. Income is cointegrated with the terms of trade. The relevant empirical channel is the home-market effect. However, financial-market effects appear also to be relevant. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (4) (2007) 470–488.     

An enduring need: multilateralism in the twenty-first century

That the global economy has been hugely successful over thepast 50 years is unquestionable. A major underpinning of thatsuccess has been the open multilateral system, which has enabledthe emergence of a truly international financial system, reciprocalreduction of trade barriers, and the emergence of many previouslypoor countries into the status of ‘emerging markets’or even ‘developed’. The open multilateral system,however, is increasingly under-appreciated and taken for granted.Preferential trading arrangements have proliferated, and withthem the possibility of discriminatory arrangements for capitalflows. The absence of an international regime for capital flowspermits this development and poses a threat to the system, asdo all of the issues on which countries' governments assert‘their’ interests, and ignore their interests inthe overall health of the system. It is to be hoped that thebenefits of multilateralism are more greatly appreciated, andthat the current trend toward increasing regionalism and departuresfrom the post-war system is reversed.     

中国对外贸易战略调整及其转换路径：一个文献综述

加入WTO以来,中国对外贸易战略的走向引起社会各界的广泛关注,讨论和争议的焦点主要集中在如何进行战略选择及具体的转化路径。对相关文献的综述、梳理表明,中国适合选择多元化的贸易战略,并根据时代变迁及时动态调整。     

我国国际收支双顺差态势的路径选择

从当代经济全球化与国际分工深化角度的研究表明,产品内分工、加工贸易的蓬勃发展是我国持续国际收支双顺差及外汇储备激增的根源。持续双顺差的格局可能给我国经济运行带来一些问题。应从以下方面作出政策调整:转变外贸政策;增加政府及公共支出,使国内储蓄顺利转化为国内投资;不断完善外汇储备制度,成立专门外汇投资公司。     

流通领域重点监测商品品类的筛选方法——以深圳为例的静态研究

在市场蓬勃发展、商品品种繁多、流通渠道多样的情况下,采取有效的方法确定需要重点进行质量监测的商品范围将有助于工商行政管理部门履行好国务院赋予的流通领域商品质量监测职能。本文以深圳为例介绍了一种静态的筛选方法。     

闽台服务业合作和服务贸易发展的探讨

闽台发展服务业合作和服务贸易是互利双赢的,同时具有广阔的空间,需要共同努力,在竞争中建立交流和合作的平台。文章还对如何发展闽台的服务业合作和服务贸易并形成机制提出看法。